The 2007 - 2008 Nets Preview - October 31, 2007
IHigher Math
Or, Does The Big Three Plus One Plus Seven More Equal Success?

It’s all adding up for the Nets in 2007 – 2008 – some roster changeover, new, fresh legs, a bolstered front line, a re-signed superstar, a return to health by two important cogs, and a renewed optimism about the immediate future in New Jersey.  Even though the Atlantic Division, formerly the weak sister of the NBA, is now brimming with talent, the Nets feel that they are uniquely positioned to play any style, from run and gun to pound it down low.  And as long as Jason Kidd is at the controls, anything is possible, as we’ve seen time and time again.

Arguably, this is the most talented team of the Kidd era.  Of course, the pillars of the team – Kidd, Vince Carter (who re-upped for a motivating $62 million), and Richard Jefferson (back from the ankle injury that wrecked his ’06 – ’07 season) – must stay healthy and continue to play at the high level that Netsfans have become accustomed to.
Nenad Krstic seems to have recovered from his devastating knee injury and looks poised to have another growth spurt, and Jason Collins is still around to provide defense and stability, as well as the broad shoulders to handle the mockery hurled his way.

But beyond “The Big Three” plus are some talented personnel the likes of which the Nets haven’t had in years past.  Jamaal Magloire, added to provide bulk and muscle down low, Malik Allen, another veteran frontliner who can shoot, and Darrell Armstrong, Kidd’s veteran, never-fatigued backup, all were brought on board to fix holes in the roster.  Add in rookie Sean Williams, who supplies energy and shot blocking and who knows what else as he learns the NBA game, is the athlete the Nets haven’t had up front since Kenyon Martin.

And the younger set has another year under their belts to help out the cause.  Marcus Williams is expected to improve mightily once he returns from injury, while Josh Boone shows signs of being a contributor on a nightly basis as well.  Boki Nachbar has upped his game over the off-season to bring scoring off the bench, and Antoine Wright is trying to find an offensive game to go with his defensive intensity.  Lord knows if he’ll find it.  Can you say first round bust?

Not nearly as many holes as last year on the bench.  Much more offensive talent there as
well. 

But is that enough to get the Nets past the second round of the playoffs?  Will the Nets return to a defensive focus, which never arrived until the playoffs last season?  Can they stay healthy, which might be the most important thing of all, especially with two superstars over the age of 30?

We’ll find out starting tonight at the CAA, I mean, Izod Center.

Let’s take a look at the roster by position:

Point Guard

Obviously, a healthy, motivated Jason Kidd is poison to the rest of the league.  Based on his enthusiasm playing in the Olympic qualifier, Kidd is pumped and ready to run.  But can he stay healthy?  The back issue that caused him to miss most of training camp is more than worrisome, as Kidd will be 35 next year.  Limiting his miles will be crucial to a sustained run come playoff time.  With the tools he has to work with, Kidd could be the key to success come May and June.

Backing up Kidd is a mix of the experienced Armstrong and the explosive but erratic Marcus Williams.  As a rookie, Williams wasn’t defensively savvy enough to stay in the lineup for long periods, so even with the expected growth spurt in year two, its critical to have Armstrong around the level the playing field while Kidd is resting.  If these two stay healthy, Kidd could be looking at his minutes reduced all the way down to the 30 minute level, which would do wonders come April, May and June.

Shooting Guard

Here’s to 62 million reasons why Vince Carter is likely to have reduced numbers but yet a better year.  It starts with the fact that the offense isn’t planned to be Vince-centric so much this year, as the Nets have more weapons that shouldn’t be tied up as VC goes 1 on 5.  Oh, Vince will get his touches all right, but look for more Nenad, RJ, and even Boki as the Nets try to run more and take advantage of the mis-matches inside that they couldn’t capitalize on last year in Krstic’s absence.  Look for Carter’s assists to go upward as he becomes merely one weapon of multiple weapons on the court at one time.

So who’s the shooting guard to back up VC, anyway?  For 8 – 10 minutes per night it could be nearly any guard on the roster. I'm sure that Richard Jefferson, Antoine Wright, Marcus Williams and Darrell Armstrong will all take their turns rotating through VC's spot. If Carter gets hurt, well, then it's a totally different thing, with Jefferson likely moving over and one of the bigs moving into the lineup. But let's not think like that, not now anyway, since VC's been pretty durable.

Small Forward

The Nets have nothing but good things to say about Richard Jefferson, especially since last year was almost a washout. He's back to form, defending with abandon and running the floor, and he's looked nothing like the guy that limped around last season. Look for the Nets to involve him in the offense more, on purpose this time, as no one runs and guns with Kidd better than RJ. It could be a huge year for him.

And the backup small forward, Bostjan "Boki" Nachbar, appears primed for a huge year off the bench. Whether he's the small forward, or even the power forward in a small lineup, Boki spent the summer getting better and better, and thus far this preseason, he was looking like he's the Sixth Man of the Year. Also able to be plugged in here is Antoine Wright, and potentially even Malik Allen. Wow, what a luxury this year.

Power Forward

The starting power forward is none other than Nenad Krstic, a center disguised as a power forward (despite what the roster says). Not really a power player, he's still got the best moves down around the basket, plus he can shoot lights out from deep (including three, as of this year).The big question of course is whether or not he's ready to play at a high level after missing most of last year with the knee surgery, but if he can get over the mental aspects, there's no doubt he can be huge for the Nets. Certainly what they missed most of last season, anyway.

For backups, start withJosh Boone. Boone was a rookie last year, and seems light years ahead this year, primed and ready to run the pick and roll with Kidd or Williams as well as get his hands dirty on the boards. Malik Allen will also do well here, able to hit the open jumper, grab a rebound or play strong defense. Sean Williams can block shots and run the floor, and he'll make up for experience with effort. Accept the rookie mistakes, and you'll see a monster in the making. Jason Collins is always around, and even Boki Nachbar could see time here in the small ball lineup.

Center
Ok, it's supposed to be Jason Collins for his defense, and his IQ, but face it, you can't wait to see Jamaal Magloire throw his weight around in the paint, can you? Magloire gives the Nets another dimension that was sorely lacking, a physical presence who rebounds, blocks shots, and scores inside. The art of intimidation is back. Collins of course will start and he'll handle the defense on the best of the bigs, and probably wind up not logging as many minutes as Magloire. Sean Williams can play center as well, as can Boone.

The Nets have never been stronger in the frontline spots. Will there be enough PT for all of them?

The Coach

The toughest job of all falls to Lawrence Frank, who must figure out a way to play 12 deserving players without causing dissension in the locker room. He's never had so much talent, so if the team meanders, it could be Frank's head that comes apart. If he can get this bunch to play defense night in and night out, and manage to keep everyone relatively happy while getting enough rest for the starters, then this team could catch fire and run through the playoffs like the '02 team did. It will be very interesting to see how the Nets get out of the gate, hopefully avoiding the slow start that puts the pressure on late in the season to not only make the playoffs, but excel in them.

The man must have a plan.

So where does all of this leave the Nets in '07 - '08? Are they are serious contender, middle of the pack, or an also-ran? Based on what we've seen so far, this team could be primed for a breakout season, with the leadership of Kidd combining with his other BIg Three and a deeper bench to bring some glory to the Izod Center.

Wouldn't it be nice to ring up a championship before the Nets move to Brooklyn?

Of course, all of this glory comes with questions:

Hypotheses, Questions and Ponderings

1) Can the Nets stay healthy? Health is probably the biggest issue facing the Nets, as Carter is 30, Kidd is 34 and two important pieces (RJ, Krstic) are coming off surgery. If they stay healthy, they can be a force. An injury to Kidd could doom them to mediocrity.

2) Will the Nets have enough playing time to go around? Don't underestimate the power of the lack of playing time to wreck havoc with team chemistry. Kidd, Carter, Jefferson, Krstic, Nachbar and Magloire are almost guaranteed enough playing time to be happy. The rest of the squad might find themselves wondering how to get back into the rotation. Situational play will likely dictate PT.

3) Does this team have the will to play defense for 48 minutes per game? As the Nets proved last year, having a defensive reputation and proving it on the court are two different things. If they don't defend consistently, then this team is no better than most of the Eastern Conference.

4) Who mans the middle most often? Is this the year that Jason Collins is phased out of the lineup in place of Jamaal Magloire? Getting more offense out of that center position could be a godsend to the Nets and their playoff aspirations. Playing 4 on 5 could be a thing of the past.

5) Will the Big Three stay together? Say the Nets are middle of the pack before the trading deadline. Do the Nets finally cash out one of the Big Three and go in a different direction? In any case, unless there is the ultimate success, this could be the final year of the Big Three in a Nets uniform.

6) What's the deal with Antoine Wright? Right now, despite his defensive skills, the pick of Wright is looking like a wasted first round pick. Wright has yet to show any consistency, and his lack of a decent jumper (despite having the rep in college) is baffling. Without his option being picked up, this is likely the last year you'll see Wright around East Rutherford.

7) Will we see big things from second year players Marcus Williams and Josh Boone? Both WIlliams and Boone showed promise in their rookie years. But Williams needed to play better defense and make better decisions, while Boone needed to add a jumper (any jumper) to his game. If either or both have done the requisite growth thing, the Nets will be brimming with matchup problems for the opposition.

8) Who will be the surprise player for the Nets? Our money is on Malik Allen, who seems like a perfect fit for the Nets. Making the open jumper is a specialty, and if he's on the floor with Kidd, Carter and Jefferson, well, he'll get plenty of chances.

9) On a 13 man roster, who is likely to be the designated sittee? Situations and team matchups will likely dictate that, since all 13 on the roster arguably deserve playing time. Assuming everyone is healthy (no injury scratches), the most likely candidates would be Sean Williams, Antoine Wright and maybe even Malik Allen or Darrell Armstrong. Maybe they better hope someone is injured.

10) How much gas does Kidd have in the tank? Plenty, we'd guess. Look for Lawrence Frank to find ways to live with the pain of Kidd resting more and more, to the point of Kidd playing no more than 35 minutes a night. Let Armstrong and Williams split the difference, again depending on game need (Armstrong, defense; Williams, offense.)

Joe's Predictions:

Nets record: 45 - 37, 2nd in Atlantic Division, 5th in Eastern Conference

Nets MVP: Jason Kidd

Most Improved Net: Josh Boone

Most Disappointing Net: Antoine Wright

Net Scoring Leader: Vince Carter, 24.5 PPG

Net Rebounding Leader: Jason Kidd: 7.8 RPG

Net Assist Leader: Jason Kidd: 9.5 APG

Eastern Conference Champ: Nets over Celtics

Western Conference Champ: Spurs over Suns

Finals Champ: Spurs over Celtics

No more talk - time to play ball!
-Joe

Archive | Backlash | Bio | Calendar | Champagne's Blog | Diatribe | Game x Game | History | Home | Joe Netsfan's Blog | Media | Opponents | Players | Playoffs | Search | Specials